Climatic Variability's Influence on Cereal Harvests in Punjab, Pakistan: A Comprehensive Analysis and Mitigation Strategies

Abstract

Climate change is a global phenomenon characterized by significant shifts in temperature, precipitation, wind patterns, and other climatic features. It poses a severe threat to various economic sectors worldwide, with agriculture being particularly vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on climate conditions. Pakistan, as an agricultural-driven economy, is profoundly impacted by the dramatic shifts in its climate, leading to substantial disruptions in agricultural production and exacerbating the issue of food insecurity. Cereal crops, including wheat, rice, and maize, play a pivotal role in providing sustenance to the global population and hold particular importance in Pakistan as a staple of the diet. However, the production of these essential cereal crops in Pakistan has been adversely affected by both the profound changes in climate conditions and a range of other contributing factors. The primary objective of this study was to comprehensively examine the influences of climatic and non-climatic factors on cereal crop production in the Punjab region of Pakistan. The variables under scrutiny included the labor force, fertilizer application, temperature variations, precipitation levels, and humidity levels. To achieve this aim, we employed secondary data spanning from 1990 to 2019, sourced from various reliable outlets such as the Pakistan Economic Survey, Punjab Development Statistics, Pakistan Agricultural Statistics, and the Pakistan Meteorological Department. To assess both short-term and long-term effects, we utilized the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the interplay between climatic and non-climatic factors and their impact on cereal crop production.