Wheat Yield Under Climate Change: Effect of Temperature and Wind Speed on the Crop Life Cycle and Productivity Estimated by DSSAT-Icsim Model

Abstract

Changing climatic conditions are the leading cause affecting the yield of grain crops, particularly in arid areas. In this study, we investigated the response of wheat yield under changing climatic variables using the DSSAT-ICSim model. The effect of different temperatures and wind speeds on obtained yield and the wheat life cycle in the arid region of Chakwal was also estimated. In this study, we used ECMWF dataset from 1979 to 2005 along with different variables such as 2 m temperature, total precipitation, solar radiation, and u-v winds. Our findings revealed that climatic factors, such as temperature and wind speed, negatively affected wheat phenology and yield in arid regions. This indicates that arid regions are more prone to extreme temperatures and changing wind speeds. Moreover, high-temperature ranges and increasing wind intensity in arid areas contributed negatively to overall wheat performance. In conclusion, arid areas are more susceptible to extreme temperatures and high wind speeds in the future. Thus, measures should be taken to produce wheat cultivars with high tolerance to temperature extremes and wind intensity.