Wheat Yield Under Climate Change: Effect of Temperature and Wind Speed on the Crop Life Cycle and Productivity Estimated by DSSAT-Icsim Model

Abstract

Changing climatic conditions are the leading cause affecting the yield of grain crops, 
particularly in arid areas. In this study, we investigated the response of wheat yield under changing 
climatic variables using the DSSAT-ICSim model. The effect of different temperatures and wind 
speeds on obtained yield and the wheat life cycle in the arid region of Chakwal was also estimated. 
In this study, we used ECMWF dataset from 1979 to 2005 along with different variables such as 2 
m temperature, total precipitation, solar radiation, and u-v winds. Our findings revealed that 
climatic factors, such as temperature and wind speed, negatively affected wheat phenology and 
yield in arid regions. This indicates that arid regions are more prone to extreme temperatures and 
changing wind speeds. Moreover, high-temperature ranges and increasing wind intensity in arid 
areas contributed negatively to overall wheat performance. In conclusion, arid areas are more 
susceptible to extreme temperatures and high wind speeds in the future. Thus, measures should be 
taken to produce wheat cultivars with high tolerance to temperature extremes and wind intensity.